KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

41%

41%

34%

14%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u

EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.55u · EPS −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	7.5%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	1.6%	64.5%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	39.6%	52.8%	0.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	50.0%	64.3%	39.9%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	47.7%	64.9%	23.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	37.5%	60.3%	0.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.2%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	2.5%	60.7%	0.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	9.2%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.4%	26.9%	0.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	13.5%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.8%	33.0%	19.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.2%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.2%	4.0%	12.6%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	5.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	4.9%	4.9%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.5%	4.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.0%	3.1%	1.2%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	3.8%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.6%	4.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	4.3%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	4.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.4%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	2.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3215
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	41%	75.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	41%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1689
WeatherNext 2	34%	74.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1156
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1056
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0202

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗