KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

EPSNO 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.35u · EPS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.0%	20.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	6.7%	12.2%	0.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	10.0%	17.9%	6.2%	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	8.1%	16.9%	2.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.3%	12.7%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	11.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.0%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	17%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0303
ICON	15%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0237
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0056
AIFS Single	5%	75.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0024
IFS Ensemble	1%	74.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗