KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

EPSNO 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.35u · EPS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	24.9%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	24.9%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	24.9%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	24.9%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	24.9%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:26+00:00	20.0%	1.1%	18.7%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	20.0%	0.7%	18.7%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	20.0%	0.7%	18.7%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	17.6%	0.7%	18.7%	28.5%	6.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	18.8%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	18.8%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	18.8%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	21.6%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	21.6%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	21.6%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	17.7%	0.7%	21.6%	28.5%	6.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	21.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	21.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	21.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	21.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:28+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	26.6%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	24.7%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	24.7%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:06+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	24.7%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	22.2%	0.7%	24.7%	19.7%	34.3%
2026-10-13T08:02:58+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	24.7%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	24.7%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	24.7%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	24.7%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	10.6%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	10.6%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	10.6%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	10.6%	18.0%	30.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	14.5%	1.0%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	14.5%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	31.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	10.7%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	10.7%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:33+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	30.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	15.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	15.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	15.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	17.4%	18.8%	15.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	17.4%	7.5%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	17%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0303
ICON	15%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0237
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0056
AIFS Single	5%	75.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0024
IFS Ensemble	1%	74.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗