KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

91%

88%

86%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

HRESNO 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.35u · HRES −4.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	95.7%	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	83.2%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	41.3%	93.4%	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	86.7%	92.1%	37.6%	—	91.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	94.5%	94.5%	39.2%	—	80.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	62.0%	95.9%	81.1%	—	64.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	80.0%	91.3%	74.5%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	6.2%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	79.3%	81.0%	76.2%	—	69.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	73.3%	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	73.1%	84.4%	76.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	77.1%	92.5%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	84.5%	90.6%	48.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	88.2%	88.7%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	82.9%	90.2%	55.8%	—	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	86.0%	93.4%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	84.3%	95.6%	74.9%	0.0%	81.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	75.5%	94.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	71.8%	95.0%	77.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	64.3%	92.1%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	54.6%	93.2%	72.0%	0.0%	77.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	67.5%	91.8%	71.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	64.6%	94.1%	78.3%	45.0%	80.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	70.9%	94.7%	76.2%	—	77.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	69.3%	94.7%	72.7%	34.3%	77.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	79.9%	96.0%	82.7%	—	81.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	82.8%	98.1%	88.5%	66.9%	87.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	98.9%	86.4%	—	80.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.3%	—	71.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	77.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	73.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	75.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	75.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗