KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

91%

88%

86%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

HRESNO 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.35u · HRES −4.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	91.1%	74.5%	89.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	93.4%	74.5%	89.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	93.4%	74.5%	89.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	90.5%	50.0%	93.4%	74.5%	89.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	94.7%	50.0%	93.4%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	94.7%	50.0%	93.4%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	94.7%	50.0%	93.4%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	94.7%	50.0%	93.4%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	94.7%	50.0%	93.4%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	94.7%	89.6%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	94.7%	89.6%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	94.7%	89.6%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	94.9%	89.6%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	94.9%	88.8%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.5%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.9%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.9%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.9%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	94.9%	91.1%	96.9%	85.3%	87.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	94.1%	91.1%	96.9%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	94.1%	91.1%	96.9%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	94.1%	91.1%	96.9%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	94.1%	91.1%	96.9%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	94.1%	91.1%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	94.1%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	94.1%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	94.1%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	94.4%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	94.4%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	94.4%	91.2%	96.7%	85.9%	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	77.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	73.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	75.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	75.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗