KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

87%

66%

58%

29%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	73.8%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	28.8%	87.9%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	77.6%	85.5%	25.2%	—	83.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	89.0%	89.0%	26.0%	—	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	46.9%	91.3%	69.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	67.0%	83.2%	60.3%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	2.6%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	65.5%	67.8%	61.5%	—	53.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	57.6%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	57.0%	71.6%	61.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	83.9%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	71.0%	80.4%	30.6%	—	49.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	76.2%	76.9%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	67.8%	79.0%	36.6%	—	56.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	71.8%	84.2%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	68.8%	88.2%	56.1%	0.0%	65.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	56.3%	85.6%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	51.1%	86.3%	57.6%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	42.2%	80.2%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	32.0%	81.7%	50.0%	0.0%	57.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	44.0%	78.4%	48.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	40.1%	82.6%	56.2%	22.7%	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	46.1%	83.4%	52.6%	—	53.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	43.3%	82.7%	47.3%	14.1%	52.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	55.6%	85.3%	59.7%	—	58.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	58.6%	91.1%	68.2%	38.6%	65.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	93.5%	63.3%	—	54.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	95.2%	—	40.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	76.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	74.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	73.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	29%	70.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗