KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

87%

66%

58%

29%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	87.4%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	87.4%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	92.8%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	92.8%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	92.8%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	80.1%	52.2%	92.8%	52.1%	79.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	92.8%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	92.8%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	92.8%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	92.8%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	70.7%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	64.2%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	64.2%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	64.2%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	64.2%	52.2%	82.2%	54.1%	77.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	69.5%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	69.5%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	69.5%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	78.4%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	69.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	80.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	80.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	80.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	82.0%	50.0%	80.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	82.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	80.9%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	80.9%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	80.9%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	80.9%	25.2%	79.0%	60.3%	80.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	86.9%	67.4%	89.4%	73.4%	74.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	86.9%	67.4%	90.4%	73.4%	74.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	86.9%	67.4%	90.4%	73.4%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	86.9%	67.4%	90.4%	73.4%	74.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	86.9%	67.4%	90.4%	73.4%	74.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	90.4%	67.4%	90.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	90.4%	67.4%	90.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	90.4%	67.4%	90.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	90.4%	67.4%	90.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	90.4%	74.3%	88.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.4%	74.3%	88.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	90.4%	74.3%	88.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.4%	74.3%	88.4%	72.1%	47.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	88.1%	74.3%	88.4%	72.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	86.6%	65.5%	85.6%	65.2%	29.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	86.6%	65.5%	90.2%	65.2%	29.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	86.6%	65.5%	90.2%	65.2%	29.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	86.6%	65.5%	90.2%	65.2%	29.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00	88.4%	65.5%	90.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	88.4%	65.5%	90.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	88.4%	65.5%	90.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	88.4%	65.5%	90.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	88.4%	65.5%	90.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	88.4%	57.6%	87.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	88.4%	57.6%	87.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	88.4%	57.6%	87.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	86.8%	57.6%	87.2%	65.7%	27.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	86.9%	57.6%	87.2%	65.7%	28.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	76.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	74.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	73.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	29%	70.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗