KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

63%

40%

30%

15%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.75u · ICON −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	86.1%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	62.2%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	18.4%	79.7%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	65.7%	75.9%	15.3%	—	73.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	80.6%	80.6%	15.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	32.3%	83.5%	54.6%	—	34.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	51.6%	71.2%	44.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.9%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	49.2%	51.7%	45.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	40.7%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	39.6%	55.2%	43.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	43.7%	70.6%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	53.7%	65.3%	16.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	59.4%	60.3%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	49.0%	62.4%	20.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	53.0%	69.2%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	49.0%	74.9%	35.9%	0.0%	44.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	35.5%	70.2%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.1%	70.8%	36.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	22.3%	61.1%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	14.7%	62.6%	28.0%	0.0%	34.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	22.5%	57.2%	26.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	19.1%	62.3%	32.0%	8.5%	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	22.8%	62.7%	28.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	20.0%	60.6%	23.0%	4.0%	27.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	28.8%	63.7%	32.5%	—	31.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	30.5%	73.2%	40.0%	15.4%	37.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	77.6%	33.8%	—	26.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	73.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	73.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗