KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

63%

40%

30%

15%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.75u · ICON −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	48.4%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	66.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	48.4%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	66.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	48.4%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	66.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	48.4%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	66.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	66.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	50.0%	8.6%	48.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	50.0%	8.6%	48.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	50.0%	8.6%	48.9%	40.4%	54.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	63.6%	8.6%	48.9%	34.5%	54.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	63.7%	8.6%	48.9%	34.5%	54.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	75.5%	41.4%	70.8%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	75.5%	34.5%	70.8%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	75.5%	34.5%	70.8%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	75.5%	34.5%	66.3%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	75.5%	34.5%	66.3%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	75.5%	34.5%	66.3%	53.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	71.4%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	73.1%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	73.1%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	73.1%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	73.1%	34.5%	66.3%	46.1%	13.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	67.2%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	67.2%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	67.2%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	60.8%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	60.8%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	72.9%	29.5%	60.8%	44.6%	12.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	70.3%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	60.8%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	72.1%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	14.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	79.2%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	15.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	79.2%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	15.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	79.2%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	15.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	79.2%	29.5%	63.4%	40.4%	15.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	73.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	73.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗