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KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
16%
HRES
4%
ICON
3%
AIFS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u
VS
AIFSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.77u · AIFS −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 27.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0086.3%————66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0054.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0016.9%————10.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0054.8%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0014.0%————16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:006.8%————19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.4%————11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.7%————20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.8%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.6%————17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0046.8%————15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0052.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0051.1%————10.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0013.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0012.6%————9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0024.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0011.9%————6.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.2%—96.4%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0011.1%————7.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.6%—18.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.0%————5.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.1%—1.4%——4.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.4%—0.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.6%—7.3%——6.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.2%—1.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.2%38.7%2.2%——5.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:005.8%—0.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.6%5.1%2.6%41.6%—3.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.3%—8.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.5%1.6%1.6%39.2%—8.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.0%—0.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0025.1%18.9%1.0%7.3%—17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0028.5%—0.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0026.8%7.5%2.5%10.4%—15.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.0%82.1%0.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0020.1%7.4%6.6%9.0%—12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0023.9%10.3%4.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0023.4%10.1%4.7%8.3%—26.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0013.0%7.8%1.7%——19.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0012.4%4.3%2.2%25.9%—12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:009.6%2.9%2.7%——10.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:005.9%4.6%2.1%19.0%—8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:005.1%3.4%1.2%——6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:005.2%3.8%0.7%7.4%99.5%4.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:004.5%6.8%0.8%——4.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.8%8.1%0.7%5.9%—4.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.3%11.2%1.2%100.0%—5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.0%16.0%0.9%7.2%99.8%5.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.1%8.7%1.1%7.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.3%9.5%0.6%4.3%20.8%3.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:002.4%6.4%0.5%4.6%—4.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:002.6%6.5%0.4%5.3%27.3%4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:001.8%3.0%0.3%2.3%—2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.1%2.1%0.1%1.1%6.3%1.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.8%—0.0%1.3%—2.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast18%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble16%70.5°F3.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend15%71.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%75.2°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON3%75.1°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%77.4°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%76.1°F3.7°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗