KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

AIFSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.77u · AIFS −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	3.0%	16.7%	3.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	3.0%	16.7%	3.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	3.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	3.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	3.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	3.0%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	6.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	3.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	3.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	3.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.2%	15.9%	3.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.2%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	3.2%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:21+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.6%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.0%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.0%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.0%	10.4%	3.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	1.0%	4.2%	2.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	1.0%	4.2%	2.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	1.0%	4.2%	2.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	1.0%	4.2%	2.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	1.0%	4.2%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	18%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	70.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	75.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	77.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗