KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

65%

35%

22%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.75u · ICON −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	20.8%	59.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	52.8%	74.8%	12.6%	—	43.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	33.0%	57.3%	37.1%	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	56.8%	62.7%	26.4%	—	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	61.8%	65.5%	20.1%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	6.0%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	59.9%	55.8%	36.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	34.2%	58.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	58.7%	54.4%	23.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	53.6%	60.7%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	56.4%	60.0%	22.3%	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	21.7%	62.1%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	23.2%	66.1%	30.4%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	24.1%	54.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	15.7%	58.2%	19.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	21.3%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	18.3%	46.7%	16.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	16.1%	38.9%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	16.8%	46.5%	12.1%	0.0%	15.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	19.9%	52.4%	15.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	19.9%	59.9%	19.9%	23.6%	21.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	65.1%	15.8%	—	17.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	72.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	73.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗