KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

64%

51%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

EPSNO 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.35u · EPS −65.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	37.9%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	28.0%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	71.6%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	12.4%	46.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	38.9%	62.4%	6.7%	—	29.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.0%	42.7%	24.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	41.7%	47.7%	15.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	46.0%	50.0%	10.8%	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	2.5%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	43.4%	39.3%	22.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	20.1%	41.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	41.3%	37.1%	12.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	35.9%	42.9%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	38.2%	41.8%	11.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	10.4%	43.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	11.1%	47.1%	15.9%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	11.4%	34.4%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	6.4%	37.8%	8.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	9.2%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	26.4%	6.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	6.0%	19.8%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	6.1%	25.1%	4.0%	0.0%	5.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	7.4%	29.3%	5.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	7.1%	35.4%	7.1%	8.9%	8.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	39.8%	4.9%	—	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	78.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	78.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	70.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	71.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗