KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

64%

51%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

EPSNO 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.35u · EPS −65.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00	85.3%	69.9%	87.9%	27.4%	40.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	85.3%	39.6%	69.9%	27.4%	40.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	85.3%	39.6%	69.9%	27.4%	40.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	85.3%	39.6%	69.9%	27.4%	40.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	55.7%	39.6%	69.9%	27.4%	40.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	55.7%	39.6%	69.8%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	69.8%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	69.8%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	69.8%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	67.0%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	67.0%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	55.7%	41.8%	67.0%	27.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	67.0%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	67.0%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	67.0%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	67.0%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	67.0%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	59.1%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	59.1%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	59.1%	41.8%	69.1%	23.9%	61.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	65.2%	13.6%	60.1%	36.9%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	65.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	65.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	63.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	65.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	63.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	41.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	41.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	41.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	41.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	41.2%	13.6%	68.9%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	41.2%	2.9%	51.0%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	41.2%	2.9%	51.0%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	41.2%	2.9%	51.0%	36.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	66.4%	2.9%	51.0%	14.2%	64.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	66.4%	2.9%	51.0%	14.2%	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	78.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	78.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	70.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	71.2°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗