KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

83%

46%

33%

23%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

EPSNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.70u · EPS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	91.5%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	72.7%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	9.6%	48.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	41.6%	55.6%	6.3%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	66.3%	40.6%	43.4%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	71.7%	31.6%	43.2%	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	64.1%	46.0%	18.4%	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	1.8%	54.9%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	57.5%	56.6%	36.9%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	14.7%	44.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	43.0%	64.6%	36.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	44.6%	59.8%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	31.4%	67.8%	16.6%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	32.6%	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	33.9%	57.7%	33.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	36.3%	49.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	25.1%	54.1%	25.1%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	27.9%	52.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	35.1%	67.9%	27.3%	28.2%	31.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	75.1%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	77.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	74.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	72.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	72.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗