KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

58%

52%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

ICONNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.80u · ICON −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	66.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	89.6%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	26.5%	54.0%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	15.3%	78.1%	9.0%	—	49.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	19.4%	82.0%	35.7%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	27.0%	86.2%	66.3%	—	52.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	24.8%	71.2%	46.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	3.6%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	20.7%	79.3%	56.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	31.9%	75.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	36.3%	76.6%	64.6%	50.9%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	81.0%	—	—	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	75.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	71.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗