KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

58%

52%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

ICONNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.80u · ICON −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	74.8%	68.4%	87.9%	28.4%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	74.8%	68.4%	87.9%	28.4%	42.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	74.8%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	74.8%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	74.8%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	87.4%	28.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	87.6%	52.4%	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	75.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	71.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗