KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

60%

37%

30%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

HRESNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.40u · HRES −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	55.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	16.7%	40.6%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	8.5%	66.4%	4.5%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	10.9%	70.9%	23.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	16.0%	76.1%	51.5%	—	37.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	14.0%	56.4%	30.9%	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	1.4%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	10.8%	65.5%	40.1%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	18.4%	60.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	21.4%	61.3%	47.4%	33.8%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	66.6%	—	—	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	73.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	69.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗