KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

60%

37%

30%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

HRESNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.40u · HRES −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	50.0%	54.0%	45.3%	62.8%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	50.0%	54.0%	55.4%	62.8%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	50.0%	54.0%	55.4%	62.8%	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	50.0%	54.0%	55.4%	62.8%	37.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	50.0%	54.0%	55.4%	62.8%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	41.2%	54.0%	55.4%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	41.2%	54.0%	55.4%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	41.2%	54.0%	55.4%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	41.2%	54.0%	55.4%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	41.2%	27.7%	52.6%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	41.2%	27.7%	52.6%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	41.2%	27.7%	52.6%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	41.2%	27.7%	52.6%	19.8%	33.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	45.6%	28.2%	52.6%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	45.6%	28.2%	52.6%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	45.6%	22.3%	52.6%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	45.6%	22.3%	52.6%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	45.6%	22.3%	55.1%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	45.6%	22.3%	55.1%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	45.6%	22.3%	55.1%	19.8%	33.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	34.2%	22.3%	55.1%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	34.2%	22.3%	55.1%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	34.2%	22.3%	55.1%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	34.2%	22.3%	55.1%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	34.2%	22.3%	55.1%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	34.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	34.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	34.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	58.5%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	57.6%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	57.6%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	32.2%	23.1%	57.6%	31.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	56.4%	23.1%	57.6%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	56.4%	23.1%	57.6%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	56.4%	23.1%	57.6%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	56.4%	23.1%	57.6%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	56.4%	23.1%	57.6%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	56.4%	35.9%	80.3%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	56.4%	35.9%	80.3%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	56.4%	35.9%	80.3%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	46.0%	35.9%	80.3%	19.4%	33.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	46.0%	35.9%	80.3%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	80.3%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	80.3%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	80.3%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	72.0%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	72.0%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	46.0%	37.4%	72.0%	19.4%	32.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	72.0%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	72.0%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	72.0%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	72.0%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	72.0%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	55.6%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	60.4%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	60.4%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	60.4%	37.4%	75.2%	18.0%	30.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	73.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	69.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗