KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

43%

41%

38%

34%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

ICONNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.60u · ICON −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	12.8%	34.2%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.0%	59.7%	3.1%	—	29.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	7.9%	64.3%	17.9%	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.8%	69.7%	43.9%	—	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	10.0%	48.4%	24.2%	—	22.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	0.8%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	7.4%	57.5%	32.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	13.2%	51.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	15.6%	52.6%	38.8%	26.2%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	58.0%	—	—	14.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	57%	74.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗