KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

66%

64%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

EPSNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.70u · EPS −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	45.8%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	75.1%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	28.6%	63.8%	18.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	30.4%	69.0%	31.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	31.6%	73.6%	47.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	48.4%	75.8%	52.4%	57.9%	48.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	76.3%	—	—	50.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	67.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	75.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	72.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗