KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

14%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.8¢Risks 3.90u

EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.10u · EPS −46.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	15.5%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.0%	7.9%	0.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.9%	9.0%	1.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.8%	10.0%	2.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.1%	9.7%	2.6%	3.6%	2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	16%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗