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KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
16%
WN2
14%
ICON
11%
HRES
8%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 7.8¢Risks 3.90u
VS
EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.10u · EPS −46.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:0010-20 07:5110-20 13:1010-20 18:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:0017.1%0.0%14.2%4.2%10.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0017.1%0.0%14.2%4.2%10.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0017.1%0.0%14.2%4.2%10.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0017.1%0.0%14.2%4.2%10.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:0017.1%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0017.1%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0017.1%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0017.1%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0017.0%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0017.0%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:0017.0%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:0017.0%0.1%12.1%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:0015.5%0.1%14.2%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:0015.5%0.1%14.2%8.3%10.9%
2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:0015.5%0.1%14.2%8.3%10.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single16%77.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%78.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON11%75.0°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES8%74.5°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
National Blend<1%73.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%72.1°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗