KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

60%

56%

48%

11%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

EPSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.85u · EPS −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	61.2%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	7.5%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.8%	65.2%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	29.8%	61.8%	5.8%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	39.9%	69.6%	38.5%	34.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	66.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	73.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	78.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	76.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	75.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	72.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗