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KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
71%
AIFS
60%
ICON
56%
HRES
48%
EPS
11%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u
VS
EPSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.85u · EPS −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00ICON: 56.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0010-19 11:2010-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:0059.6%10.7%60.8%32.6%17.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:0059.6%10.7%60.8%32.6%17.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0059.6%10.7%60.8%32.6%17.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:0056.9%10.7%60.8%32.6%17.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:0056.9%10.7%60.8%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:0056.9%11.4%60.8%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:0056.9%11.4%60.8%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:0056.9%11.4%60.8%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:0056.9%11.4%68.1%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:0056.9%11.4%68.1%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:0056.9%11.4%68.1%32.6%17.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:0056.2%11.4%68.1%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:0056.2%11.4%68.1%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:0056.2%11.4%68.1%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:0056.2%11.4%68.1%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:0056.2%11.4%68.1%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:0056.2%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:0056.2%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:0056.2%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:0059.6%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:0059.6%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0059.6%11.4%70.9%48.1%56.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 271%78.3°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single60%76.9°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON56%77.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend55%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES48%75.2°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble11%72.0°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗