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KCHS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
32%
AIFS
23%
HRES
20%
ICON
9%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 16.1¢Risks 16.10u
VS
EPSNO 83.9¢Risks 83.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.90u · EPS −83.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.6% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0011.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%———2.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0058.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0055.8%———27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0045.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0035.9%———21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0054.8%———16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0036.4%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0012.3%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0011.5%———19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0011.8%———15.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0022.8%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:009.1%———14.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:009.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0011.9%———13.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:009.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0016.0%———13.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0012.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0012.7%———10.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0013.3%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0012.6%—31.9%—8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0014.4%—38.2%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0017.3%———10.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0021.5%—1.6%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0019.8%—29.6%—9.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0018.0%—41.1%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0016.4%—22.1%—8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0015.1%—33.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0012.1%0.1%46.0%4.3%12.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:009.2%—37.8%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——33.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 232%80.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single23%78.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES20%77.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON9%69.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend2%77.0°F2.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%75.0°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261027-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗