KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

68%

58%

37%

32%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

HRESNO 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.00u · HRES −39.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	99.8%	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	96.6%	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	68.2%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	100.0%	90.4%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	39.6%	84.7%	81.1%	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	40.6%	86.9%	—	72.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	33.7%	25.8%	72.4%	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	48.4%	45.2%	54.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	55.7%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	91.3%	39.3%	66.2%	—	57.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	71.2%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	50.0%	32.2%	37.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	66.6%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	48.2%	40.0%	43.6%	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	40.6%	37.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	52.9%	49.0%	51.0%	—	61.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	40.1%	46.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	61.2%	43.9%	31.2%	—	65.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	64.5%	37.5%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	64.9%	33.1%	21.3%	45.6%	48.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	67.5%	35.7%	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	64.8%	52.3%	25.1%	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	51.2%	47.6%	28.3%	—	53.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	56.2%	43.8%	34.2%	30.9%	48.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	48.7%	39.8%	26.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	51.3%	39.4%	22.0%	24.0%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	51.4%	39.0%	20.1%	—	56.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	40.0%	44.2%	20.2%	25.6%	60.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	10.5%	21.3%	14.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	8.9%	25.0%	14.2%	14.2%	23.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	16.0%	21.6%	21.6%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.8028
WeatherNext 2	68%	53.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4692
NWS forecast	59%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
AIFS Single	58%	53.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3364
National Blend	41%	52.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
ICON	37%	51.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1347
IFS HRES	32%	50.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗