KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

68%

58%

37%

32%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

HRESNO 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.00u · HRES −39.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:24+00:00	50.0%	92.0%	70.5%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	50.0%	90.0%	70.5%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	50.0%	90.0%	69.7%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	50.0%	90.0%	69.7%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	50.0%	90.0%	69.7%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	50.0%	90.0%	69.7%	64.2%	65.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	69.7%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	69.7%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	69.7%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	69.7%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	49.2%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	58.1%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	58.1%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	58.1%	90.0%	67.9%	42.4%	93.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:36+00:00	39.7%	89.4%	46.8%	32.3%	63.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	39.7%	89.4%	46.8%	32.3%	63.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	39.7%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	63.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	39.7%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	63.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	39.7%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	63.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	54.3%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	54.3%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	41.4%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	50.9%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	61.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	52.8%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	59.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	52.8%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	59.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	52.8%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	59.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	52.8%	89.4%	51.1%	24.2%	59.9%
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	52.8%	89.4%	51.1%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	52.8%	91.1%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	52.8%	91.1%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	52.8%	91.1%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	49.1%	91.1%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	49.1%	91.0%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	68.3%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	49.1%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	59.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	55.6%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	55.6%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	55.6%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	55.6%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	55.6%	92.4%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	55.6%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	55.6%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	55.6%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	66.1%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	62.8%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	62.8%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	56.5%	92.5%	62.8%	41.1%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	62.8%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	62.8%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	62.8%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	62.8%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	62.8%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	55.8%	92.5%	56.4%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	55.8%	97.2%	56.4%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	55.8%	97.2%	56.4%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	61.6%	96.9%	56.4%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	61.6%	96.9%	56.4%	34.8%	62.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	54.9%	96.2%	60.2%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	54.9%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	54.9%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	54.9%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	58.0%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	58.0%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	58.0%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	58.0%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	58.0%	96.2%	62.6%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	58.0%	89.0%	59.5%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	58.0%	89.0%	59.5%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	58.0%	89.0%	59.5%	36.6%	41.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	59.0%	89.0%	59.5%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	59.0%	88.9%	59.5%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	59.0%	89.5%	59.5%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	59.0%	89.6%	59.5%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	59.0%	89.6%	59.5%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	59.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	59.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	59.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	37.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	56.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	63.4%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	68.5%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	68.5%	32.4%	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	58.0%	89.6%	68.5%	32.4%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.8028
WeatherNext 2	68%	53.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4692
NWS forecast	59%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
AIFS Single	58%	53.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3364
National Blend	41%	52.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
ICON	37%	51.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1347
IFS HRES	32%	50.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗