KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

53%

46%

17%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

AIFSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.75u · AIFS −62.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	99.0%	—	—	70.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	88.8%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	56.3%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	42.9%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	99.7%	73.5%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	16.6%	62.4%	57.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	16.5%	65.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	11.8%	7.8%	43.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	20.1%	17.9%	24.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	25.0%	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	70.0%	13.4%	33.8%	—	25.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	38.2%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	19.0%	9.0%	11.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	31.8%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	16.6%	11.9%	13.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	18.3%	15.9%	17.1%	—	24.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	10.5%	13.5%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	22.7%	11.8%	6.4%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	24.5%	8.3%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	23.8%	6.2%	2.9%	11.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	24.9%	6.7%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	21.5%	13.4%	3.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	11.9%	10.2%	3.7%	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	13.7%	8.0%	4.9%	4.0%	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.2%	6.0%	2.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	9.5%	5.3%	1.7%	2.0%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.6%	4.7%	1.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.4%	5.5%	1.1%	1.8%	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	1.0%	0.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.2%	0.4%	0.4%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.7%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	58.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4624
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	53%	57.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2809
ICON	46%	55.5°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2116
National Blend	35%	54.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1253
WeatherNext 2	17%	52.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0296
AIFS Single	6%	48.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0042

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗