KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

53%

46%

17%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

AIFSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.75u · AIFS −62.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:08+00:00	8.1%	78.3%	30.6%	56.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:49+00:00	8.1%	78.3%	30.6%	56.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00	8.1%	78.3%	39.6%	56.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	8.1%	78.3%	39.6%	56.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	8.1%	78.3%	39.6%	56.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00	10.9%	78.3%	39.6%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	10.9%	78.3%	39.6%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	10.9%	78.3%	39.6%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	10.9%	78.3%	39.6%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:57+00:00	10.9%	78.3%	39.6%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:57+00:00	10.9%	68.2%	17.1%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	10.9%	68.2%	17.1%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	10.9%	68.2%	17.1%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:49+00:00	6.7%	68.2%	17.1%	53.0%	46.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	6.5%	68.0%	17.2%	53.0%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	58.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4624
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	53%	57.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2809
ICON	46%	55.5°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2116
National Blend	35%	54.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1253
WeatherNext 2	17%	52.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0296
AIFS Single	6%	48.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0042

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗