KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≤ 49°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

30%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

EPSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +81.30u · EPS −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	16.8%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	0.0%	3.5%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	39.6%	6.0%	7.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	37.8%	4.8%	—	12.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	43.9%	53.0%	12.2%	—	20.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	28.8%	31.6%	24.2%	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	22.4%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	2.3%	36.1%	14.8%	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	25.5%	42.2%	36.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	13.5%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	25.9%	33.0%	29.7%	—	26.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	31.8%	34.3%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	21.0%	24.0%	22.5%	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	30.8%	25.7%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	14.5%	26.8%	38.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	12.1%	31.6%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	11.4%	35.1%	48.9%	23.8%	21.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	9.7%	31.5%	70.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	10.5%	17.5%	41.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	17.5%	19.9%	37.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	13.7%	21.7%	29.8%	33.1%	18.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	17.4%	23.8%	36.1%	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	14.9%	23.0%	40.7%	38.1%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	13.9%	22.1%	41.7%	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	20.2%	17.2%	40.0%	33.1%	8.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	54.5%	36.6%	47.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	56.3%	30.3%	45.3%	45.3%	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	40.2%	32.4%	32.4%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	36%	50.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1318
ICON	30%	51.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
AIFS Single	17%	53.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0282
National Blend	13%	52.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0174
WeatherNext 2	6%	53.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0042
NWS forecast	5%	53.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	1%	56.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 49°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-LE49
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 49°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗