KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

81%

76%

71%

53%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

EPSNO 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.05u · EPS −28.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.3%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	8.5%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	51.4%	20.9%	13.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	64.3%	49.3%	52.9%	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	52.3%	56.1%	59.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	75.8%	71.2%	62.5%	—	52.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	0.2%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	72.1%	78.1%	62.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	58.5%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	60.4%	75.9%	52.6%	—	36.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	58.9%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	51.8%	72.6%	49.1%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	50.9%	67.4%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	51.9%	65.2%	39.4%	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	53.0%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	57.2%	70.6%	66.0%	—	53.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	56.3%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	65.9%	57.6%	66.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	60.0%	65.4%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	60.4%	65.9%	68.0%	—	61.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	64.1%	64.1%	67.5%	—	64.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	61.1%	74.4%	70.2%	45.0%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	57.7%	75.2%	69.8%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	61.9%	78.0%	73.9%	46.0%	65.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	72.4%	78.9%	72.4%	—	68.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	80.9%	84.6%	72.0%	68.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	78.7%	87.2%	67.5%	—	70.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	76.2%	88.3%	60.9%	63.9%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	93.2%	93.7%	81.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	65.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0076
AIFS Single	81%	64.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0353
IFS HRES	76%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0586
ICON	71%	63.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0864
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2172
IFS Ensemble	53%	59.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2247
National Blend	47%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2809

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗