KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

81%

76%

71%

53%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

EPSNO 28.0¢Risks 28.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.05u · EPS −28.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:25+00:00	79.1%	55.2%	84.3%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	79.1%	52.6%	84.3%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	79.1%	52.6%	89.4%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	79.1%	52.6%	89.4%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	79.1%	52.6%	89.4%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	79.1%	52.6%	89.4%	72.9%	78.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	89.4%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	89.4%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	89.4%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	89.4%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	81.2%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	81.2%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	81.2%	52.6%	91.3%	75.8%	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	65.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0076
AIFS Single	81%	64.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0353
IFS HRES	76%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0586
ICON	71%	63.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0864
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2172
IFS Ensemble	53%	59.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2247
National Blend	47%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2809

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗