KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

EPSNO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.17u · EPS −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:30+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	14.2%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	14.2%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	14.2%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	14.2%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	14.2%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	10.5%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	10.5%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	10.5%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	10.5%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	10.6%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:25+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	10.6%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	10.6%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	13.0%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	13.0%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	13.0%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	9.7%	0.5%	13.0%	13.8%	3.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	13.0%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	13.0%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	13.0%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	13.0%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	8.0%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:04+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	16.2%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	18.8%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	18.8%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	18.8%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	18.8%	11.8%	14.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:40+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	18.8%	12.6%	7.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	18.8%	12.6%	7.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	18.8%	12.6%	7.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	18.8%	12.6%	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	19%	71.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0353
IFS HRES	13%	68.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0159
NWS forecast	10%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0098
AIFS Single	9%	68.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0088
ICON	7%	65.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0053
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗