KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

76%

54%

40%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

ICONNO 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.75u · ICON −39.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	72.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	39.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	5.2%	27.7%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	48.6%	66.4%	12.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	71.5%	58.0%	27.2%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	50.8%	65.6%	22.2%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	45.2%	39.0%	16.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.1%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	52.5%	34.5%	27.9%	—	20.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	41.5%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	63.7%	30.7%	33.0%	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	58.9%	27.9%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	43.6%	31.4%	28.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	36.1%	30.9%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	30.4%	30.4%	17.1%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	21.9%	29.9%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	21.2%	33.0%	8.6%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	24.5%	26.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	26.4%	30.1%	6.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	31.5%	29.6%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	23.3%	25.1%	3.3%	0.0%	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	38.1%	37.0%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	52.5%	37.7%	6.3%	30.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	52.6%	38.5%	7.7%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	44.6%	33.1%	6.5%	26.2%	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	56.9%	39.0%	11.8%	—	14.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	60.1%	34.5%	13.0%	35.8%	13.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	38.1%	6.0%	—	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗