KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

76%

54%

40%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

ICONNO 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.75u · ICON −39.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	83.6%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	66.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	89.0%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	89.0%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	89.0%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	89.0%	62.6%	89.3%	63.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	89.0%	62.6%	89.3%	62.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	89.0%	43.9%	86.7%	62.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	89.0%	43.9%	86.7%	62.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	89.0%	43.9%	86.7%	62.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	80.2%	43.9%	86.7%	62.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	80.3%	43.9%	86.3%	61.9%	82.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	78.9%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	78.9%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	86.8%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	86.8%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	86.8%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	82.3%	50.0%	86.8%	33.9%	63.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	86.8%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	86.8%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	86.8%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	86.8%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	80.9%	48.6%	69.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	73.6%	60.2%	72.4%	39.4%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	73.6%	60.2%	75.3%	39.4%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	73.6%	60.2%	75.3%	39.4%	27.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	73.6%	60.2%	75.3%	39.4%	27.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	73.6%	60.2%	75.3%	39.4%	27.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	75.3%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	75.3%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	75.3%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	75.3%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	78.5%	52.9%	79.0%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	78.5%	52.9%	79.0%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	78.5%	52.9%	79.0%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	78.5%	52.9%	79.0%	37.6%	23.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	73.9%	52.8%	79.0%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	73.9%	52.8%	79.0%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	79.0%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	79.0%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	77.1%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	77.1%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	73.9%	47.3%	77.1%	37.6%	23.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	77.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	77.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	77.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	77.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	77.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	71.4%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:59+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	75.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	78.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	78.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	72.3%	47.3%	78.1%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	75.3%	47.3%	78.1%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	75.3%	47.3%	78.1%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	75.3%	47.3%	78.1%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	75.3%	47.3%	78.1%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	75.3%	47.3%	78.1%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	78.5%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	78.5%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	75.3%	51.3%	78.5%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	74.5%	51.3%	78.5%	39.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	74.6%	51.3%	78.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	78.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	78.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:17+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	78.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	69.7%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	69.7%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	74.6%	54.1%	69.7%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	69.7%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	69.7%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	69.7%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	69.7%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	69.7%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	78.5%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	87.9%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	87.9%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	87.9%	54.1%	76.5%	40.4%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗