KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

63%

57%

49%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

EPSNO 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.10u · EPS −33.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	66.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	33.0%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	3.6%	22.3%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	41.6%	59.7%	9.0%	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	65.0%	50.7%	21.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	43.2%	58.3%	16.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	37.5%	31.6%	11.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	0.1%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	44.2%	27.2%	21.3%	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	33.4%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	55.2%	23.4%	25.5%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	50.0%	20.9%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	34.7%	23.7%	20.9%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	27.6%	23.1%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	22.5%	22.5%	11.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	15.2%	21.9%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	14.5%	24.3%	5.2%	0.0%	12.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	16.9%	18.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	18.3%	21.3%	3.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	22.3%	20.6%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	15.3%	16.8%	1.7%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	27.3%	26.3%	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	40.1%	26.6%	3.3%	20.8%	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	39.8%	26.9%	4.0%	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	31.9%	22.0%	3.2%	16.5%	7.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	43.1%	26.5%	6.2%	—	8.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	45.7%	22.2%	6.8%	23.4%	6.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	24.8%	2.7%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	63%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	67.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	66.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗