KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

63%

57%

49%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

EPSNO 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.10u · EPS −33.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	87.6%	45.7%	79.5%	50.0%	26.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	87.6%	45.7%	79.5%	50.0%	26.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	87.6%	45.7%	79.5%	50.0%	26.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	87.6%	45.7%	79.5%	50.0%	26.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	78.8%	45.7%	79.5%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	79.5%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:37+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	79.5%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	79.5%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	80.6%	50.0%	63.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	80.6%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	85.2%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	85.2%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	84.9%	48.6%	85.2%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	85.2%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	78.8%	48.6%	85.2%	56.9%	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	63%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	67.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	66.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗