KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

65%

28%

22%

16%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

ICONNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.75u · ICON −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	60.6%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	2.5%	17.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	34.9%	52.8%	6.5%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	58.0%	43.4%	16.5%	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	35.8%	50.8%	12.5%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	30.1%	24.8%	8.4%	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.0%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	36.1%	20.7%	15.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	26.0%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	46.5%	17.2%	19.0%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	41.1%	15.0%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	26.6%	17.2%	14.9%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	20.3%	16.5%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	15.9%	15.9%	7.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	10.0%	15.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.4%	17.0%	3.0%	0.0%	8.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	11.9%	14.3%	1.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	14.8%	13.5%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	9.4%	10.5%	0.8%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	17.5%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	28.7%	17.4%	1.6%	13.0%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	28.0%	17.4%	1.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	21.0%	13.4%	1.4%	9.5%	3.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	30.0%	16.4%	3.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.8%	13.0%	3.2%	13.8%	3.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	14.4%	1.0%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	70.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	66.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗