KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

65%

28%

22%

16%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

ICONNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.75u · ICON −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:40+00:00	83.6%	48.9%	74.9%	43.7%	23.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	83.6%	48.9%	74.9%	43.7%	23.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	83.6%	48.9%	74.9%	43.7%	23.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	83.6%	48.9%	74.9%	43.7%	23.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	65.0%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	65.0%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	68.5%	22.4%	65.0%	50.0%	74.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	60.2%	22.4%	65.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	60.2%	22.4%	65.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	60.2%	22.4%	65.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	60.2%	22.4%	65.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	60.2%	22.4%	65.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	60.2%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	60.2%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	60.2%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	57.6%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	61.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	61.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	68.5%	22.5%	61.0%	20.6%	59.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	61.0%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	61.0%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	61.0%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	61.0%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	61.0%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	72.0%	22.5%	62.4%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	72.0%	24.1%	62.4%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	72.0%	24.1%	62.4%	22.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	70.0%	24.1%	62.4%	22.3%	50.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	70.0%	24.1%	62.4%	22.3%	50.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	67.1%	23.8%	65.1%	35.2%	56.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	67.1%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	56.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	67.1%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	56.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	67.1%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	56.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	67.6%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	67.6%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	67.6%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	67.6%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	67.6%	23.8%	66.9%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	67.6%	24.5%	64.7%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	67.6%	24.5%	64.7%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	67.6%	24.5%	64.7%	35.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	66.8%	24.5%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	66.9%	24.5%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	66.9%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	41.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	41.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	41.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	64.7%	20.6%	41.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	64.7%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	67.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	60.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	60.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	63.7%	25.6%	60.6%	21.8%	41.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	60.6%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	60.6%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	60.6%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	60.6%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	61.0%	25.6%	60.6%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	53.7%	29.0%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	53.7%	29.6%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	58.2%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	55.9%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	55.9%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	55.9%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	53.7%	31.6%	55.9%	21.7%	19.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	55.9%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	55.9%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	55.9%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	55.9%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	50.9%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	56.5%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	56.5%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	56.5%	31.6%	50.0%	23.7%	13.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	74.6%	28.2%	51.4%	21.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	74.6%	28.2%	51.4%	21.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	74.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	74.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	74.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	86.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	86.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	86.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	86.6%	28.2%	64.7%	21.7%	15.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	70.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	66.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗