KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

58%

42%

34%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.6¢Risks 56.60u

HRESNO 43.4¢Risks 43.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.40u · HRES −43.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	64.6%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	16.3%	75.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	70.8%	78.1%	15.3%	—	34.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	68.3%	54.4%	44.2%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	69.7%	52.3%	50.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	39.0%	58.7%	63.3%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	0.6%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	33.0%	55.0%	35.3%	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	26.0%	57.6%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	21.4%	56.1%	22.8%	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	27.1%	54.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	28.9%	45.4%	19.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	40.6%	45.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	33.9%	40.4%	7.9%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	42.0%	53.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	33.0%	33.0%	2.5%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	46.8%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	51.1%	37.1%	4.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	48.9%	38.9%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	45.4%	36.3%	4.8%	0.1%	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.4%	57.2%	4.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	64.6%	52.5%	8.0%	37.7%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	43.6%	7.2%	—	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	66.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	61.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗