KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

33%

28%

17%

17%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 12.68u

ICONNO 74.6¢Risks 37.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.32u · ICON −37.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	7.6%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	39.1%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	4.8%	50.7%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	43.7%	52.8%	4.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	39.9%	26.6%	18.9%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	23.9%	22.8%	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	14.0%	28.1%	32.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.1%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	10.1%	23.8%	11.2%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	6.7%	25.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	4.7%	23.4%	5.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	6.6%	21.5%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	7.0%	14.9%	3.6%	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	11.8%	14.3%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	8.2%	11.1%	0.8%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	17.7%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.1%	7.1%	0.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	12.7%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	7.7%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	12.3%	7.9%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	10.0%	6.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	16.0%	15.2%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	19.1%	11.8%	0.4%	5.9%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	7.2%	0.3%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	65.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	62.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗