KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.9¢Risks 4.47u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.52u · EPS −45.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:35+00:00	51.4%	2.0%	36.2%	12.2%	10.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	51.4%	0.6%	28.7%	12.2%	10.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	51.4%	0.6%	28.7%	12.2%	10.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	51.4%	0.6%	28.7%	12.2%	10.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	30.3%	0.6%	28.7%	12.2%	10.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	30.3%	0.6%	28.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	28.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	28.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	28.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	21.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	21.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	30.3%	1.0%	21.8%	12.2%	11.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	21.8%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	21.8%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	21.8%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	21.8%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	21.8%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:43+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	13.1%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	12.3%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	15.4%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	15.4%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	25.5%	1.0%	15.4%	3.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	15.4%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	15.4%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	15.4%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	15.4%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	15.4%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	35.5%	1.0%	16.2%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	35.5%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	35.5%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	24.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	16.2%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	22.0%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	22.0%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	22.0%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	24.0%	0.2%	22.0%	6.1%	25.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	22.0%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	22.0%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	22.0%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	22.0%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	20.7%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:18+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.8%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	14.1%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	25.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	5.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	5.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	5.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	5.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	12.4%	7.7%	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	18%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	69.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	65.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗