KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

33%

33%

17%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

HRESNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · HRES −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	20.6%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	73.2%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	1.1%	30.6%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	51.4%	54.2%	10.5%	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	22.1%	58.0%	41.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	16.0%	56.1%	21.1%	—	22.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	13.1%	30.9%	24.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	27.0%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	9.0%	25.1%	9.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	11.5%	23.3%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	9.7%	19.6%	15.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	13.0%	37.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	8.3%	31.4%	3.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	23.1%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	28.7%	26.3%	11.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	26.5%	20.4%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	25.9%	25.9%	9.4%	—	16.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	33.5%	30.7%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	36.1%	34.1%	17.6%	37.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	27.6%	0.0%	—	9.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	68.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	61.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗