KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

33%

33%

17%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

HRESNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · HRES −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	89.4%	74.8%	87.2%	26.9%	18.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	89.4%	60.9%	87.2%	26.9%	18.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	89.4%	60.9%	87.2%	26.9%	18.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	93.9%	60.9%	86.9%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	93.9%	60.9%	86.9%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	86.9%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	86.9%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	91.3%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	91.3%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	91.3%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	93.9%	59.6%	91.3%	27.1%	18.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	91.3%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	91.3%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	91.3%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	91.3%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	80.0%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	71.2%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	71.2%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	71.2%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	71.2%	59.6%	86.1%	34.8%	68.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	63.4%	46.1%	51.9%	30.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	63.4%	46.1%	54.8%	30.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	63.4%	46.1%	54.8%	30.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	63.4%	46.1%	54.8%	30.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	63.4%	46.1%	54.8%	30.8%	27.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	62.0%	46.1%	54.8%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	62.0%	46.1%	54.8%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	62.0%	46.1%	54.8%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	62.0%	46.1%	54.8%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	62.0%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	62.0%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	62.0%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	62.0%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	59.5%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	59.5%	32.1%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	59.5%	27.9%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	59.5%	27.9%	54.3%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	59.5%	27.9%	52.1%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	59.5%	27.9%	52.1%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	59.5%	27.9%	52.1%	33.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	52.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	52.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	52.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	52.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	52.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	53.5%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	51.1%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	54.3%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	54.3%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	56.9%	27.9%	54.3%	35.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	62.0%	27.9%	54.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	62.0%	27.9%	54.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	62.0%	27.9%	54.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	62.0%	27.9%	54.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	62.0%	27.9%	54.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	62.0%	30.3%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	62.0%	30.3%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	62.0%	30.3%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	61.1%	30.3%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	61.1%	30.3%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	68.3%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	59.4%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	59.4%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	61.1%	33.0%	59.4%	26.5%	34.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	59.4%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	59.4%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	59.4%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	59.4%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	59.4%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	64.6%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	76.7%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	76.7%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	76.7%	33.0%	66.2%	16.7%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	68.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	61.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗