KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

86%

65%

22%

16%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	67.6%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	0.7%	24.9%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	44.4%	47.2%	7.7%	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	17.0%	50.7%	34.3%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	11.8%	48.5%	16.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	9.3%	24.2%	18.4%	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	0.0%	20.7%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	6.1%	18.9%	6.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	7.8%	17.3%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	6.5%	14.1%	10.5%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	8.8%	29.4%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	5.3%	23.7%	2.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	16.5%	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	21.0%	19.0%	7.5%	—	12.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	19.0%	14.0%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	18.3%	5.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	24.5%	22.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	26.4%	24.7%	11.4%	27.3%	9.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	19.0%	0.0%	—	5.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	72.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	72.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	67.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	61.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	56.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗