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KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
86%
EPS
65%
HRES
22%
ICON
16%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u
VS
ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:0085.7%65.1%86.3%22.0%15.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:0085.7%65.1%86.3%22.0%15.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:0085.7%65.1%86.3%22.0%15.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:0085.7%65.1%86.3%22.0%15.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:0085.7%65.1%86.3%22.0%15.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%72.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single86%72.5°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%67.9°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%61.6°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON16%56.5°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗