KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

17%

17%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.80u · ICON −57.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	12.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	61.6%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	0.4%	19.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	37.6%	40.3%	5.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	12.8%	43.4%	27.9%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	8.4%	40.9%	11.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	6.4%	18.4%	13.6%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.0%	15.3%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	3.9%	13.8%	3.9%	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	5.1%	12.3%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	4.1%	9.7%	7.0%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	5.7%	22.2%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	3.2%	17.2%	1.1%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	11.3%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	14.7%	13.1%	4.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	13.0%	9.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	12.3%	12.3%	3.4%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	16.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	18.3%	16.9%	7.0%	19.0%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	12.3%	0.0%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	64.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗