KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

17%

17%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.80u · ICON −57.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	40.5%	26.6%	68.9%	33.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	40.5%	26.6%	56.8%	33.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	40.5%	26.6%	56.8%	33.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	40.5%	26.6%	56.8%	33.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	46.8%	26.6%	56.8%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	46.8%	26.6%	56.8%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	46.8%	26.6%	56.8%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	46.8%	26.6%	56.8%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	46.8%	26.6%	56.8%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	46.8%	21.0%	47.1%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	46.8%	21.0%	47.1%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	46.8%	21.0%	47.1%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	44.4%	21.0%	47.1%	21.8%	20.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	44.4%	21.0%	47.1%	21.9%	21.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	60.2%	12.0%	42.9%	7.9%	17.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	60.2%	12.0%	42.9%	7.9%	17.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	60.2%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	17.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	60.2%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	17.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	60.2%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	17.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	68.1%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	15.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	68.1%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	15.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	68.1%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	15.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	68.1%	12.0%	55.9%	7.9%	15.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	68.1%	17.0%	58.9%	17.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	68.1%	17.0%	58.9%	17.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	68.1%	17.0%	58.9%	17.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	68.1%	17.0%	58.9%	17.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	68.1%	16.9%	59.0%	17.1%	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	64.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗