KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

15%

14%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.65u

ICONNO 73.4¢Risks 73.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.35u · ICON −73.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	55.2%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	15.5%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	31.1%	33.6%	3.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	9.3%	36.4%	22.1%	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	5.8%	33.7%	8.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	4.3%	13.6%	9.7%	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	11.0%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	2.5%	9.7%	2.5%	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	3.3%	8.5%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	2.5%	6.5%	4.5%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	3.6%	16.1%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	1.9%	11.9%	0.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	7.4%	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	9.8%	8.6%	2.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	8.4%	5.7%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	7.8%	7.8%	1.8%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	11.1%	9.6%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	11.9%	10.9%	4.0%	12.5%	3.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	7.5%	0.0%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	62.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗